Analysis of Key Races

Oregon Single Payer

Oregon voters saw the light and rejected Measure 23 by an overwhelming vote of 79% to 21% (with 76% of the vote in). The measure would have funneled all the public and private money spent on health care in the state into a "single-payer" account run by government. A study by LECG consulting, released just before the election showed that every Oregon resident would have paid an additional $4,000 to $5,900 in taxes if the new system were implemented.

Prescription Drugs

• The prescription drug benefit for Medicare which the House passed in 2002 gave Republicans an edge on an issue that traditionally favors Democrats.
  • House Incumbents John Shimkus (R-IL) and Nancy Johnson (R-CT) actively campaigned on their support of the House Medicare prescription drug bill.
    • Shimkus defeated David Phelps 55-45
    • Johnson defeated Jim Malony 54-43

  • Senate challengers John Thune (R-SD), John Sununu (R-NH), and Jim Talent (R-MO) also used their support of the House Medicare bill to blunt attacks from their opponents on the issue.
    • Thune leads Tim Johnson 50-49
    • Sununu defeated Jeanne Shaheen 51-47
    • Talent defeated Jean Carnahan 50-49

  • Open seat Senate candidates Elizabeth Dole (R-NC) and John Cornyn (R-TX) and House candidates Jo Bonner (R-AL), and Bob Beauprez (R-CO) also made their support of a responsible drug benefit along the lines of the House bill an important part of their campaigns.
    • Dole defeated Erskine Bowles 54-45
    • Cornyn defeated Ron Kirk 55-43
    • Bonner defeated Judy McCain Belk 60-38
    • Beauprez leads Mike Feeley 48-46

  • The Medicare prescription drug issue was expected to be pivotal in Maine, where Sen. Susan Collins, R, successfully defended her seat against Chellie Pingree, D, who devised a controversial price-control system for prescription drugs in Maine. Democrats thought this issue and this candidate were their best chance to make the race competitive. The effort failed.

• Alternatively, many Democrats had messages on prescription drugs that didn't seem to resonate with voters.
  • Tim Johnson (D-SD), Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH), and Bob Clement (D-TN) said Republicans were too aligned with big pharmaceutical companies.
    • Johnson is losing to Thune 50-49
    • Shaheen lost to Sununu 51-47
    • Clement lost to Lamar Alexander, 55-44

  • Erskine Bowles (D-NC), Jean Carnahan (D-MO), Walter Mondale (D-MN), and Ron Kirk (D-TX) supported a government-run drug benefit for Medicare and the promotion of generic drugs.
    • Bowles lost to Dole 54-45
    • Carnahan lost to Talent 50-49
    • Mondale lost to Norm Coleman 50-48
    • Kirk lost to Cornyn 55-43

  • In New York, Democratic gubernatorial candidate Carl McCall cut a television spot blaming incumbent Gov. Pataki for the state's high prescription drug prices. McCall lost.

  General health issues

  • Many candidates discussed health care issues specific to their districts.
    • Medical malpractice reform was an issue in Maryland's gubernatorial race as well as in the West Virginia House race between Shelley Moore Capito (R) and Jim Humphreys (D).
      • In Maryland, Ehrlich defeated Kennedy-Townsend 51-48
      • Capito defeated Democrat Humphreys 60-40

    • State efforts to lower prescription drug costs were important issues in most contests for governor, but especially in Florida where Jeb Bush defeated Bill McBride 56-43

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    For more information contact:
    Galen Institute
    (703) 299-8900